Advanced leading indicator analysis showing 10-year Treasury yield changes (2-year rolling, advanced 18 months, inverted) versus S&P 500 year-over-year returns. Rate changes historically predict equity market movements with an 18-month lead time.
Methodology: The 10-year Treasury yield change (blue line) represents the 2-year rolling change in yields, plotted 18 months into the future on an inverted scale. When this line rises (rates falling over 2 years), it historically predicts higher S&P 500 returns 18 months later. The convergence and divergence of these lines provides early signals of equity market turning points.